Emergent Futures Tumblelog

This is the Tumblelog of Paul Higgins and Sandy Teagle - Futurists from Melbourne and Brisbane in Australia. Go to Emergent Futures to see more or follow on Twitter at FuturistPaul . If you right click on the pictures, titles or links in these posts you will be able to go to the original story on the web. If you click on comments for each post you can either read what others have said or add your own comment via Disqus. If you click on the date of a post it will take you to a single post view where you can copy the web link if you want to send it to someone else. If you click on the tags it will take you to other stories from Emergent Futures with the same tag.

Posted at 4:43pm.

Posted at 3:09pm.

I have just put up the second post in a longer series on the major disruptors of the next decade. The first two posts focus on the driverless car including:

"Global implementation of driverless cars will mean sweeping changes to the car manufacturing system due to a number of key factors:

  • If we do not own cars then we are likely to be less concerned about the models of cars that we use and we will have far less model ranges. The experience will be far more focused on what happens when we are in the car from the point of view of connectivity, entertainment, safety and our capacity to work while in motion than they will an emotional attachment to a car model.
  • Cars will be driven far more than they currently are. Cars are currently used on 4-6% of their daily life. If we reduce the number of cars on the road by 60-70% then the mileage done by most cars will be much higher than it previously was. In fact some uses may be five times as high if a model is adopted where a basic car model is the workhorse of the system and we use other cars less for specialty occasions such as moving stuff or a luxury dinner night.

This means that it is likely that the number of car models will reduce significantly and the focus will be on durability and reliability and a faster changeover of the life of cars measured in time while they last longer in terms of kilometres traveled. So while there may be a bloodbath in car manufacturing as these adjustments are made there is the capacity to have significant reductions in the costs of car manufacturing and running costs based on improved model volumes and increased durability from improved design, and more rapid innovation cycles”

You can see the full post at:

Major Disruptors Section 2

Posted at 2:34pm.

Posted at 1:34pm.

Car crash: Huge hit to jobs and growth as automotive manufacturing ends in Australia, warns new study

The closure of car manufacturing could cost Australia nearly 200,000 jobs and $29 billion in lost economic output, a new report predicts.

The nationwide impacts will extend far beyond the core car-making regions of Victoria and South Australia.

Victoria will be hardest hit by the closure of the car plants when first Ford, then General Motors Holden and Toyota stop manufacturing in Australia over the next three years.

The study estimates that up to 100,000 direct and indirect jobs will be lost in Victoria when the plants shut their doors.

Full Story: ABC

Posted at 12:00pm.

Car crash: Huge hit to jobs and growth as automotive manufacturing ends in Australia, warns new study


The closure of car manufacturing could cost Australia nearly 200,000 jobs and $29 billion in lost economic output, a new report predicts.
The nationwide impacts will extend far beyond the core car-making regions of Victoria and South Australia.
Victoria will be hardest hit by the closure of the car plants when first Ford, then General Motors Holden and Toyota stop manufacturing in Australia over the next three years.
The study estimates that up to 100,000 direct and indirect jobs will be lost in Victoria when the plants shut their doors.


Full Story: ABC

(Source: fiorenn)

Posted at 10:25am.

Unlike a rusting highway bridge, digital infrastructure does not betray the effects of age. And, unlike roads and bridges, large portions of the software infrastructure of the Internet are built and maintained by volunteers, who get little reward when their code works well but are blamed, and sometimes savagely derided, when it fails. To some degree, this is beginning to change: venture-capital firms have made substantial investments in code-infrastructure projects, like GitHub and the Node Package Manager. But money and support still tend to flow to the newest and sexiest projects, while boring but essential elements like OpenSSL limp along as volunteer efforts. It’s easy to take open-source software for granted, and to forget that the Internet we use every day depends in part on the freely donated work of thousands of programmers. If open-source software is at the heart of the Internet, then we might need to examine it from time to time to make sure it’s not bleeding.
Remember, the customer doesn’t even pay a driver, the payment goes through Uber. What are these drivers going to do when Uber totally controls the market? Sue? Ha, not if they want the algorithm, I mean the market pricing, to ‘reward’ them. And let’s be clear, when a company offers low cost financing for capital investment for independent contractors and controls all aspects of the transaction and customer relationship, these are no longer independent contractors. They are employees. Only in this case, they are employees who have taken on debt to work for Uber. Uber has figured out that it is cheaper to trick people into thinking they are independent contractors and get them to risk their capital. Then Uber can happily take the profits. I guarantee you, if Uber thought its capital would be best used to run a fleet of cars, it would simply hire people straight out to be drivers. That it’s not doing that suggests something.

Neura gets $2M to bring AI to the internet of things
Stacey Higginbotham, gigaom.com

With more than 26 bil­lion (or more) con­nect­ed devices antic­i­pat­ed by 2020, there’s a big ques­tion about how those devices will talk to one anoth­er. But the sci­en­tists behind Neura, a start­up that has offices in both Cal­i­for­nia and…

Posted at 5:43am.


Neura gets $2M to bring AI to the internet of things Stacey Higginbotham, gigaom.com
With more than 26 bil­lion (or more) con­nect­ed devices antic­i­pat­ed by 2020, there’s a big ques­tion about how those devices will talk to one anoth­er. But the sci­en­tists behind Neura, a start­up that has offices in both Cal­i­for­nia and…