Emergent Futures Tumblelog

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April 4th 2012

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The State of Australian Politics


Antony Green, the ABC political analyst who does consistently great work has published a very thoughtful analysis of the state of the Australian Labor Party on his blog. In that analysis he has dug into the data and produced the accompanying graph.

I have posted a detailed comment, an alternate theory of the cause of the graph and a set of predictions at our long form blog: www.futuristpaul.com  including: 


“As a futurist I am fond of saying that the best predictor of the future is long term consistent human behaviour. So if asked to predict the future of the internet 20 years ago I would have predicted that it would be filled with gossip, gambling, crime, sharing, and pornography because that is what people have done for thousands of years. In a political context the consistent pattern is that when enough people get upset then revolutions occur”


“Once these combinations reach a certain point there will be an explosion. I am not sure exactly what that might look like but here are a few possibilities:

  1. More influence and members of such organisations as Get Up which increase the engagement of people in the process and also reduce the friction between people getting upset and being able to do something.
  2. More independent politicians, in part fuelled by dissatisfaction with the major parties, but also powered by new ways to communicate. In the past mass media has kept the major parties in power except in certain areas where an individual has a strong enough media profile to get significant coverage. Media power is starting to wane as new methods of producing and distributing content engage people more.
  3. A coalition of regional independents because once regional people wake up to the fact that they can hold the balance of power almost permanently by banding together on their major areas of concern they will support candidates outside of the major parties that will do that.
  4. A splitting of politicians into one group that has an even shorter life than now because of electoral volatility, and another group who have long careers and influence because they connect with the electorate far more. I do not mean that they have to be sycophantic but a combination of strong leadership and empathy will be key.”
If you want more detail then read more



Posted at 10:14am and tagged with: politics, future,.

The State of Australian Politics Antony Green, the ABC political analyst who does consistently great work has published a very thoughtful analysis of the state of the Australian Labor Party on his blog. In that analysis he has dug into the data and produced the accompanying graph. I have posted a detailed comment, an alternate theory of the cause of the graph and a set of predictions at our long form blog: www.futuristpaul.com  including:  “As a futurist I am fond of saying that the best predictor of the future is long term consistent human behaviour. So if asked to predict the future of the internet 20 years ago I would have predicted that it would be filled with gossip, gambling, crime, sharing, and pornography because that is what people have done for thousands of years. In a political context the consistent pattern is that when enough people get upset then revolutions occur” “Once these combinations reach a certain point there will be an explosion. I am not sure exactly what that might look like but here are a few possibilities: More influence and members of such organisations as Get Up which increase the engagement of people in the process and also reduce the friction between people getting upset and being able to do something. More independent politicians, in part fuelled by dissatisfaction with the major parties, but also powered by new ways to communicate. In the past mass media has kept the major parties in power except in certain areas where an individual has a strong enough media profile to get significant coverage. Media power is starting to wane as new methods of producing and distributing content engage people more. A coalition of regional independents because once regional people wake up to the fact that they can hold the balance of power almost permanently by banding together on their major areas of concern they will support candidates outside of the major parties that will do that. A splitting of politicians into one group that has an even shorter life than now because of electoral volatility, and another group who have long careers and influence because they connect with the electorate far more. I do not mean that they have to be sycophantic but a combination of strong leadership and empathy will be key.” If you want more detail then read more
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