Emergent Futures Tumblelog

This is the Tumblelog of Paul Higgins and Sandy Teagle - Futurists from Melbourne and Brisbane in Australia. Go to Emergent Futures to see more or follow on Twitter at FuturistPaul . If you right click on the pictures, titles or links in these posts you will be able to go to the original story on the web. If you click on comments for each post you can either read what others have said or add your own comment via Disqus. If you click on the date of a post it will take you to a single post view where you can copy the web link if you want to send it to someone else. If you click on the tags it will take you to other stories from Emergent Futures with the same tag.

After a bit of a gap I am back posting at our long form blog

This one is on how to include looking for possible disruptions into an environmental scanning process while accepting you will always miss lots of them.

The post includes several disruptions from our scanning database:

Automate or Perish

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/428402/automate-or-perish/?nlid=nlbus&nld=2012-07-06

Successful businesses will be those that optimize the mix of humans, robots, and algorithms.

Jeff Jarvis


We are seeing a widespread disruption of institutions: not just economically and technologically but also in their status in society. Note: Gallup finds that more than half the institutions it tracks have hit historic lows in confidence in the last five years.

E-Commerce Is Head Over Heels for Pinterest

http://allthingsd.com/20120615/e-commerce-is-head-over-heels-for-pinterest-and-theres-a-good-reason-why/

evidence that Pinterest is skyrocketing: 

  • In Q2, referral traffic from Pinterest is up 2,535 percent year over year.
  • In Q2, referral traffic from Facebook is up 2.7 percent year over year.
  • Conversion rates from Pinterest are 0.43 percent in Q2, up from 0.29 percent in Q1 2012.
  • Conversion rates for Facebook are 0.61 percent in Q2, up from 0.49 percent in Q1 2012.

Disruption in Film Making

http://wiredinsider.tumblr.com/post/25307743475/diy-cgi

Every aspiring filmmaker should get really excited right about now. A group of programming enthusiasts have successfully hacked a Kinect to produce a stunning new hybrid of video and computer generated imagery. CGI is hard. And expensive. This technique puts it within reach of anyone with a Kinect and a digital camera.

Scoot Airlines Cuts 7% of Aircraft Weight and Slashes Fuel Bills by Switching to iPad 2 Rental

http://worldnewsresource.com/scoot-airlines-cuts-7-of-aircraft-weight-and-slashes-fuel-bills-by-switching-to-ipad-2-rental/1948/frank-little

No more airline entertainment systems or servicing!

You can access the post at http://wp.me/p2j8HS-5M 

Posted at 2:36pm and tagged with: future, disruption, business models,.

Bundled services square the circle of more people listening to more music than ever but fewer of them paying than ever before. Bundled music services are the ‘Third Way’ for digital music (see figure).

stoweboyd:

Two things today made me assess the small progress made in hyperlocal journalism to date, and to reconsider the direction we might be headed in.

First, I saw a tweet go by pointing to a WSJ story:

Keach Hagey, For AOL, a Costly Gamble On Local News Draws Trouble

Mr. Armstrong, has held his…

Posted at 6:27am and tagged with: media, social media, tech, technology, business models,.

The offer will run for 90 days following the game’s launch, and is open to any fully-funded, complete and ready-to-publish title.

Full Story: Eurogamer

Posted at 11:57am and tagged with: gaming, tech, technology, crowdfunding, business models,.

courtenaybird:

Last year, Facebook’s non-advertising revenue — the bulk of which comes from virtual payments using Credits (an estimated 12% of which came from game developer Zynga) — was $557 million, or about 15% of the total, according to the company’s S-1 securities filing. That was more than four times what the company pulled in from payments in 2010. And since that figure represents Facebook’s 30% take of the total, that means users spent close to $2 billion in Credits last year.

In short: less than 2% of users generated $500 million in revenue.

Posted at 10:11am and tagged with: gaming, technology, tech, economic, business models,.

Paul Higgins: That is just fantastic

and it reminds me of the story about the turkey by Nassim Taleb. All the available evidence the turkey has is that humans are a benevolent and caring species that houses and feeds turkeys until one day ……….

futuristgerd:

(via Facebook Changes – Everybody Panic! — TweetFindTV)

So true: WE are the content of Facebook the broadcaster- it’s free but they sell our information!!

Posted at 8:15am and tagged with: data, business models, social media, tech, technology,.

Paul Higgins: That is just fantastic
and it reminds me of the story about the turkey by Nassim Taleb. All the available evidence the turkey has is that humans are a benevolent and caring species that houses and feeds turkeys until one day ……….
futuristgerd:

(via Facebook Changes – Everybody Panic! — TweetFindTV)
So true: WE are the content of Facebook the broadcaster- it’s free but they sell our information!!
What the story of Craigslist and Facebook shows is that online network effects are strong barriers to entry to FRONTAL competition but not to LATERAL competition.

Facebook makes about 1/10th of Google’s revenues even though they have 2x the pageviews. Some estimates put Google’s search revenues per pageviews at 100-200x Facebook’s.

…The bad news is that, if there is one consistent theme in both online and offline advertising, it’s that ads work dramatically better when consumers have purchasing intent. Google makes the vast majority of their revenues when people search for something to buy or hire. They don’t have to stoke demand – they simply harvest it. When people use Facebook, they are generally socializing with friends. You can put billboards all over a park, and maybe sometimes you’ll happen to convert people from non-purchasing to purchasing intents. But you end up with a cluttered park, and not very effective advertising.

(via Chris Dixon)

Posted at 7:14pm and tagged with: economic, tech, technology, business models, social media, advertising,.

I suspect that Facebook will forever live within this dialectic, expanding the boundaries of social sharing and then reacting to pushback from users and critics when it goes too far. As long as it continues to listen to those critics, that pattern is probably the best outcome.