Emergent Futures Tumblelog

This is the Tumblelog of Paul Higgins and Sandy Teagle - Futurists from Melbourne and Brisbane in Australia. Go to Emergent Futures to see more or follow on Twitter at FuturistPaul . If you right click on the pictures, titles or links in these posts you will be able to go to the original story on the web. If you click on comments for each post you can either read what others have said or add your own comment via Disqus. If you click on the date of a post it will take you to a single post view where you can copy the web link if you want to send it to someone else. If you click on the tags it will take you to other stories from Emergent Futures with the same tag.
Key Drivers of Change


As a futurist I am often asked what the future will look like. Apart from the fact that there are many possible futures, presenting one view of the future limits people’s thinking.

I would much rather talk about multiple futures and the major drivers that will shape those futures. This is because the audience I am talking to can then take away that information, critically review it and how it applies to their own circumstances as things change. This provides far more value.

One of the frameworks that we use to look at what might happen is the Three Tees – Technology, Trust, and Transparency. These three are shaping change but they are also interacting with each and changing each other as we move into the future. This is how I think about them………Read More

Posted at 5:02pm and tagged with: change, drivers, technology, trust, Transparency,.

This is a new, MUST-READ book by my colleague and friend Alan Moore. “In No Straight Lines, Alan Moore argues that we have reached the nadir of the adaptive range of our industrialised world. Now faced with an unsustainable trilemma of social, organisational and economic complexity, we have entered an era in which the rules we have previously organised our lives around no longer apply. Leaving us with both a design problem and a design challenge which we must urgently solve. By describing an entirely new way for true social, economic and organisational innovation to happen, No Straight Lines presents a revolutionary logic and an inspiring plea for a more human-centric world.

‘Alan Moore is a visionary, someone who takes concepts from many sources and detects the previously hidden relationship between them. He has a firm grasp of the changes which are reshaping our world, always pointing towards a more participatory, cooperative, reciprocal model of what our society might look like.’ Henry Jenkins, Provost Professor of Communication, Journalism, and Cinematic Arts, USC Annenberg School for Communication

‘Economic transactions and markets have warped perceptions to such a degree that most people fail to see what is important in life, even when it’s right in front of them. Alan Moore offers a vision that is at once more humane, more forward-thinking, and more realistic.’ Howard Rheingold, writer and critic

Bruce Sterling (via futuramb)

Posted at 11:04am and tagged with: futurte, change,.

Futurism is the art of reperception. It means recognizing that life will change, must change and has changed, and it suggests how and why. It shows that old perceptions have lost their validity, while new ones are possible.
J P Rangaswami, Thinking about change (via stoweboyd)

Posted at 7:52pm and tagged with: mobile, cloud, cloud computing, tech, change,.

The cloud is not just about flexibility of access to compute power and storage and bandwidth, or about avoiding the thankless tasks of software installations, maintenance and upgrades; mobile is not just about ubiquity of access; cloud and mobile, together, are not just about the ability to “shift time” and “shift space”; social is not just about getting closer to the customer, about valuing relationships and capabilities; open is not just about the transformation of innovation, about partnering, about collaboration across boundaries.

The cloud paradigm is about all of this.

And about one more thing.

The capacity to change. Designed as an integral function. Native.

Changing capacity, scale, coverage, product set, devices, whatever. The cloud is about launching products, scaling them up, scaling them down, discontinuing them. The cloud is about entering …. and exiting … markets. The cloud is about delivering services to the device of choice; even if it didn’t exist when the original design was made.

The cloud is about change. Not about the steady state.

IT before the cloud was all about preserving and maintaining the steady state. And that’s why so many projects failed, and will continue to fail. A conflict of philosophy, as the agents of change try to batter down the walls of the mechanisms implemented to protect against change.

The monolithic systems of the past, largely concentrated on the back office, were built to achieve entirely different objectives: stable, repeatable processes executed at the lowest cost possible, designed to rebuff change.

The cloud is about change.

The 7 Stages of Robot Replacement



A robot/computer cannot possibly do what I do.

OK, it can do a lot, but it can’t do everything I do.


OK, it can do everything I do, except it needs me when it breaks down, which is often.


OK, it operates without failure, but I need to train it for new tasks.


Whew, that was a job that no human was meant to do, but what about me?


My new job is more fun and pays more now that robots/computers are doing my old job.


I am so glad a robot cannot possibly do what I do.


Full Story: The Technium

Posted at 10:11pm and tagged with: robots, change, just because,.

 
The 7 Stages of Robot Replacement

A robot/computer cannot possibly do what I do.

OK, it can do a lot, but it can’t do everything I do.
OK, it can do everything I do, except it needs me when it breaks down, which is often.
OK, it operates without failure, but I need to train it for new tasks.
Whew, that was a job that no human was meant to do, but what about me?
My new job is more fun and pays more now that robots/computers are doing my old job.

I am so glad a robot cannot possibly do what I do.


Full Story: The Technium

futuramb:

(via “Who Can Fix Health Care?” Al Mulley’s talk at TEDx Dartmouth | e-Patients.net)

This is an interesting speech where the speaker is arguing that neither the government nor doctors can transform health care, but the collective of patients can.

Yes, people are already doing this. At least for themselves… But the question is still what the doctors and the government should do. Government is responsible for the structure and financing decisions and doctors are responsible for the value system, organizing and delivering care. Both of these major groups are actually completely locked up in a structure which defies change… Their responsibility should at least be to dismount the structures in order to allow the required reorganizing! Otherwise nothing will happen at all… That the patients are not able to do at all!!

Posted at 10:09am and tagged with: future, health care, innovation, change,.

bijan:

I was talking to a friend yesterday after the sad and horrible airbnb story broke.

My friend commented at the time, “I would never make my home available on airbnb and I’m not sure I would ever use airbnb”

First let me make it clear: I am not an investor in the company and I am not personal…

Posted at 9:06am and tagged with: change, risk, tech, technology,.

Ford to Phase Out CD Players In Its Cars


Ford has foreseen the direction it must take in order to stay up to date with the modern day technology. But in some people’s point of view the decision seems to be taken a bit sooner than expected.

Full Story: AutoEvolution

Posted at 10:01am and tagged with: change, trends, tech, technology, transport,.

Ford to Phase Out CD Players In Its Cars

Ford has foreseen the direction it must take in order to stay up to date with the modern day technology. But in some people’s point of view the decision seems to be taken a bit sooner than expected.
Full Story: AutoEvolution