Emergent Futures Tumblelog

This is the Tumblelog of Paul Higgins and Sandy Teagle - Futurists from Melbourne and Brisbane in Australia. Go to Emergent Futures to see more or follow on Twitter at FuturistPaul . If you right click on the pictures, titles or links in these posts you will be able to go to the original story on the web. If you click on comments for each post you can either read what others have said or add your own comment via Disqus. If you click on the date of a post it will take you to a single post view where you can copy the web link if you want to send it to someone else. If you click on the tags it will take you to other stories from Emergent Futures with the same tag.

climateadaptation:

Urban Renewal

These 10 global infrastructure and tech companies are among the early leaders in smart-city programs.

“Like Siemens and ABB, most of the beneficiaries of urbanization will be infrastructure and technology outfits that provide or utilize smartphones, sensors and software and services to track the use of a city’s assets and commit resources when and where they’re needed. Cloud technology, which can cut costs while boosting computing capacity, will play a big role. Even social media will participate, as cities multiply the ways a citizen can spot a problem–anything from a water-main break to a traffic snarl–and then alert others to avoid it or do something about it.

Technology researchers at IDC estimate the size of the smart-city information-technology market is now $34 billion annually and will gain 18%-plus a year to $57 billion by 2014. That’s not a huge amount to global giants, but certainly enough to help drive growth. (The companies don’t break out earnings related to these projects.) The market has broadened to include items like broadband connectivity, green belts, renewable energy, green buildings and other intelligent-city systems. “You are talking about smart water, smart transportation, better public safety,” says Jennifer Bélissent, a consultant at Forrester.”

Source: Barron’s “Dawn of the Smart City”

Posted at 7:55pm and tagged with: siemens, ibm, abb, cisco, smart growth, smart grid, energy, economy, economic development, cities, urban planning, planning, barrons, infrastructure, leaders,.

climateadaptation:

Urban Renewal
These 10 global infrastructure and tech companies are among the early leaders in smart-city programs.
“Like Siemens and ABB, most of the beneficiaries of urbanization will  be infrastructure and technology outfits that provide or utilize  smartphones, sensors and software and services to track the use of a  city’s assets and commit resources when and where they’re needed. Cloud  technology, which can cut costs while boosting computing capacity, will  play a big role. Even social media will participate, as cities multiply  the ways a citizen can spot a problem–anything from a water-main break  to a traffic snarl–and then alert others to avoid it or do something  about it.
Technology researchers at IDC estimate  the size of the smart-city information-technology market is now $34  billion annually and will gain 18%-plus a year to $57 billion by 2014.  That’s not a huge amount to global giants, but certainly enough to help  drive growth. (The companies don’t break out earnings related to these  projects.) The market has broadened to include items like broadband  connectivity, green belts, renewable energy, green buildings and other  intelligent-city systems. “You are talking about smart water, smart  transportation, better public safety,” says Jennifer Bélissent, a  consultant at Forrester.”
Source: Barron’s “Dawn of the Smart City”

climateadaptation:

Looks like we’ll reclaim our Number 1 spot for the first time in 40 years. Story is paywalled at The Sunday Time, but a blogger copied the nut, HERE. And here’s Dow Jones’s clip:

LONDON -The U.S. will soon become the world’s top oil producer, The Sunday Times reported Goldman Sachs as…

Posted at 4:18am and tagged with: opec, oil and gass, oil, drilling, goldman sachs, london, USA, climate change, commodities, economics, economy, economic development,.

climateadaptation:

Portland is nationally recognized as a leader in the movement to create bicycle-friendly cities. About 7 percent of commuters here travel by bike (the national average is under 1 percent) and the city has an ambitious plan, adopted last year, to increase that proportion to 25 percent by 2030.

Until recently, Portland’s bike initiatives focused on improving the transportation infrastructure, said Roger Geller, the city’s bicycle coordinator. But as businesses awaken to the purchasing power of cyclists, “bicycle-supported developments” are also beginning to appear around town, Mr. Geller said. These are residential and commercial projects built near popular bikeways and outfitted with cycling-related services and amenities.

“The change is coming from the private sector,” Mr. Geller said. “Cyclists are a great potential market for businesses that want people traveling at human-scale speed and will stop and buy something.”

Some 3,000 riders a day pass by Mr. Ettinger’s new brewpub, which he calls the Hopworks BikeBar. It has racks for 75 bicycles and free locks, to-go entrees that fit in bicycle water bottle cages, and dozens of handmade bicycle frames suspended over the bar areas.

nytimes, 20.09.11.


Hopworks Urban Brewery (HUB) in SE Portland.

Source: NYTimes Business

(Source: citymaus)

Posted at 6:32am and tagged with: PDX, biking, cycling, cyclists, development, infrastructure, news, oregon, portland, cities, economy, jobs, planning, infrastructure, transportation,.

climateadaptation:

LATimes solid piece on economic impacts of climate change. Sea level rise and other impacts will cut into tourism and tax dollars. Presents a massive sink hole for municipal infrastructure dollars. Couple this with the short-cycle, short-sighted nature of political “leadership,” and coastal cities and home owners are in big, big trouble. 

Rising sea levels could take economic toll on California beaches: A state-commissioned study by San Francisco State says erosion and storm damage by the advancing ocean over the next century could cut into tourism and tax revenue.

Photo: Homeowners along Broad Beach in Malibu have been building huge sandbag walls reinforced with truckloads of boulders to stem damage caused by rising seas and stormy tides. Credit: Al Seib / Los Angeles Times

(Source: Los Angeles Times)

Posted at 10:52am and tagged with: california, economy, education, environment, climate change, latimes, coastal planning, ocean, property rights, conservation easements, property, climate adaptation, adaptation, insurance, tourism,.

climateadaptation:

LATimes solid piece on economic impacts of climate change. Sea level rise and other impacts will cut into tourism and tax dollars. Presents a massive sink hole for municipal infrastructure dollars. Couple this with the short-cycle, short-sighted nature of political “leadership,” and coastal cities and home owners are in big, big trouble. 

Rising sea levels could take economic toll on California beaches: A state-commissioned study by San Francisco State says erosion and storm damage by the advancing ocean over the next century could cut into tourism and tax revenue.
Photo: Homeowners along Broad Beach in Malibu have been building huge sandbag walls reinforced with truckloads of boulders to stem damage caused by rising seas and stormy tides. Credit: Al Seib / Los Angeles Times
Every single study that’s ever been done suggests that pollution control actually, invariably is an economic stimulus in that it creates jobs in the construction industry, engineering, in technology and in the past, historically, the United States has been able to export some of that technology to the rest of the world.

climateadaptation:

Chinese environmental groups claim that Apple manufacturers have been releasing harmful pollutants into the environment. A report by the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs (IPE) and other non-governmental Chinese environment groups cited, for example, that an Apple factory in the city…

Posted at 10:33am and tagged with: apple, ibtimes, business, economy, jobs, china, pollution, taxes, free market, libertarian, news, hazards, cognitive dissonance, denial, regulations, human health, health, rivers, toxic, environment, environmental law, law,.

futuramb:

Have you ever been thinking that there is something fundamentally wrong with the way economists view the world? One reason is that Economists apply linear and analytical models which simply don’t take into account e g non-linearity, which is exactly what we see around us today. During certain periods the world seems to behave according to linear models and things seems almost predictable, but between those stable periods non-linear or even chaotic phenomena is dominating and linearly created models becomes totally irrelevant. 

This video is an interview with Doyne Farmer, a professor doing research complex systems at the Santa Fe institute. In this video he explains his project of making a bottom-up agent-based simulation of the economy.  

The really interesting value with agent-based simulations is that they don’t reduce problems into a linear models. On the other hand they require calibration to reality as well as a lot of computer power to simulate the actions of millions of individuals.

What we also must know is that they are not very good at predicting future outcomes. They rather help is to learn about how certain patterns appears and how these patterns have certain emergent results. It is a tool for learning rather than predicting. 

One way to understand this is to see the computer as a “macroscope” which helps us zoom in and out from individual behavior to the emergent patterns in order to understand under which circumstances e g collapses and other phenomena happens.

This emerging understanding and research of non-linearity, complexity and chaos have been interesting for scientist from many field for a couple of decades now, almost nothing of it have seems to have been applied to e g econometry. It is really urgent that this happens now and professor Doyne Farmer seems to be the right person to take the first steps towards a new complexity based theory of economics.

(via Doyne Farmer - Macroeconomics From the Bottom Up | Institute for New Economic Thinking)

Posted at 4:10am and tagged with: agent based modelling, santa fe, complexity, economy,.

robertreich:

THE 5 percent of Americans with the highest incomes now account for 37 percent of all consumer purchases, according to the latest research from Moody’s Analytics. That should come as no surprise. Our society has become more and more unequal.

When so much income goes to the top, the middle class…

Posted at 1:36pm and tagged with: Robert Reich,, jobs,, economy, Obama,.

smartercities:

Start Up Street - What will you start up?

I absolutely love the ambition of this! It’s a very commendable example of using local skills, knowledge and assets to make something bigger!

Architecture+Design Scotland have launched ‘Start Up Street” in Stirling (Scotland), in response to an ideas workshop attended by the members of the local community, business owners and the Council, to examine how to generate sustainable economic activity and employment opportunities locally in Stirling.  

The ‘start up street’ in Stirling is a local street that currently has 7 empty shops. They plan to use the underutilised assets to set up a hub to explore creative solutions that could stimulate and develop local enterprise and economic activity and deliver positive outcomes. To set the ball rolling the video also gives some great examples of various projects that could be launched that focus on health and well-being.

The High Street is a key element of our settlements. Its role as the central space of villages, towns and cities has been challenged by changes in the pattern of retail, of leisure, and living. In many High Streets in many settlements there are vacant and underutilised assets. In some cases the High Street is under pressure. It is an issue of concern for many, from businesses, to citizens, to investors.

Meeting the challenge of how to re-think the High Street as a central place requires creative thinking about how we make the best of what we already have. The communities in Stirling City Centre recently participated in a co-design exercise to re-think the centre of the City. The Urban Ideas Bakerybrought together citizens, officers of the Council, businesses and other stakeholders to look at how the people resources of the city and the spatial resources might be managed differently. Out of this thinking emerged an idea to re-consider King Street as a ‘start up street’, which enables business start ups, scaling of small business and curating events and activities in the public space. The proposal is to explore how people with ideas, talents and capabilities in the city can be matched with the available spaces in the city, supported by a community of interest. This idea is being tested in a prototype phase to engage a wide range of interests in exploring how the idea works, what is feasible, what is not. The objective is to use this practical method of testing the idea to develop a live project, to start small and build up a sustainable, self supporting enterprise.

The project is open to anyone with an interest in High Streets, how they work, and how they can be enhanced. This short video explains the thinking behind ‘Start Up Street’, whats involved and how you can get involved.

via irishboyinlondon:

(Source: buildgreatcities)

Posted at 9:01pm and tagged with: urbanism, urban acupuncture, urban planning, urban living, urban development, urban space, city life, city planning, economy, economics, community, community engagement, community regeneration, community development, Architecture, liveable cities, vitality, localism,.