Emergent Futures Tumblelog

This is the Tumblelog of Paul Higgins and Sandy Teagle - Futurists from Melbourne and Brisbane in Australia. Go to Emergent Futures to see more or follow on Twitter at FuturistPaul . If you right click on the pictures, titles or links in these posts you will be able to go to the original story on the web. If you click on comments for each post you can either read what others have said or add your own comment via Disqus. If you click on the date of a post it will take you to a single post view where you can copy the web link if you want to send it to someone else. If you click on the tags it will take you to other stories from Emergent Futures with the same tag.

Expert warns world needs to move ‘rapidly’ toward ‘population shrinkage’

The optimum population of Earth – enough to guarantee the minimal physical ingredients of a decent life to everyone – was 1.5 to 2 billion people rather than the 7 billion who are alive today or the 9 billion expected in 2050, said Ehrlich in an interview with the Guardian.


Full Story: The Raw Story

Posted at 1:52pm and tagged with: population, environment, risk,.

Expert warns world needs to move ‘rapidly’ toward ‘population shrinkage’


The optimum population of Earth – enough to guarantee the minimal physical ingredients of a decent life to everyone – was 1.5 to 2 billion people rather than the 7 billion who are alive today or the 9 billion expected in 2050, said Ehrlich in an interview with the Guardian.

Full Story: The Raw Story

futuramb:

BBC News - Third of UK babies ‘will live to 100’

In 2012 there are 826,000 babies aged under one year. Although more are boys - 423,000 compared to 403,000 girls - the survival odds are greater for females. Women have higher life expectancies than men at every age.

Of those born in 2012, 135,000 men and 156,000 women are expected to still be alive by age 100.

The report - What are the Chances of Surviving to Age 100? - comes as ministers have pledged to double funding for dementia research in the UK.

If this holds true over time it will continue to have all sorts of implications. Everything from the economic situation for both society and individuals to different values and ways to think of life and life stages. Is e g the promise of a longer life having an effect on how we relate to our institutions and infrastructures which originally was created to create longer term stability than what any individual could oversee, but which today seems to have a shorter term perspective than what any individual can afford to have. Especially when promised to live until 100…

Posted at 6:08pm and tagged with: population, demographics, forecasts,.

futuramb:

BBC News - Third of UK babies ‘will live to 100’

In 2012 there are 826,000 babies aged under one year. Although more are boys - 423,000 compared to 403,000 girls - the survival odds are greater for females. Women have higher life expectancies than men at every age.
Of those born in 2012, 135,000 men and 156,000 women are expected to still be alive by age 100.
The report - What are the Chances of Surviving to Age 100? - comes as ministers have pledged to double funding for dementia research in the UK.

If this holds true over time it will continue to have all sorts of implications. Everything from the economic situation for both society and individuals to different values and ways to think of life and life stages. Is e g the promise of a longer life having an effect on how we relate to our institutions and infrastructures which originally was created to create longer term stability than what any individual could oversee, but which today seems to have a shorter term perspective than what any individual can afford to have. Especially when promised to live until 100…

Paul Higgins: This number does not make sense. how can increasing population 28.5% require 70% more food. This seems to be combining increases in food consumption/type of food with population increases. I am all for recognising these problems but sensationalising it in the wrong way does not help.

centerforinvestigativereporting:

Just one of the food-and-water facts from the campaign organizers at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.

Posted at 9:39am and tagged with: food, population, agriculture, trends,.

Do the dead outnumber the living?

Paul Higgins: People often get this wrong. The estimate here is that 107 Billion people have ever lived versus 7 billion alive today

Full Story: BBC

Posted at 3:40pm and tagged with: population, assumptions,.


Do the dead outnumber the living?

Paul Higgins: People often get this wrong. The estimate here is that 107 Billion people have ever lived versus 7 billion alive today

Full Story: BBC

World running out of resources: UN

A major United Nations report has called for a sustainable “evergreen revolution”, warning that time is running out to ensure there is enough food, water and fuel to meet the needs of the world’s rapidly growing population.

Full Story: ABC

You can get the report from the United Nations (pdf)

Posted at 8:55am and tagged with: food, population, agriculture, risk, environment, water,.

World running out of resources: UN



A major United Nations report has called for a sustainable “evergreen revolution”, warning that time is running out to ensure there is enough food, water and fuel to meet the needs of the world’s rapidly growing population.

Full Story: ABC

You can get the report from the United Nations (pdf)

humanscalecities:

Daily Chart: Over half of China’s people now live in urban areas

Posted at 3:29am and tagged with: population, demographics, urbanisation,.

humanscalecities:

Daily Chart: Over half of China’s people now live in urban areas

futuramb:

2012 will be an important historic juncture when the shape of the global frameworks that will help humanity through the 21st century start to become clear. It is a year when the world will begin to come to terms with a new political, economic and technological order that requires new approaches to problem solving, new models for the conduct of human affairs, and new ways of relating to each other and the world in which we live. If we are to thrive as a global community of almost 10 billion – the projected population by 2050 – these new models are not optional, they are an absolute necessity. Human ingenuity got us into this mess, and it will get us out.

(via The World Economic Forum Blog: 2012: A Critical Juncture for Global Governance)

What this tells me is that World Economic Forum just have started to take this issue of global transformation seriously. But it is evidence that they are just fumbling to grasp the nature of the challenge… One thing they don’t seem to recognize is that they themselves, the existence of their institutions which most of them sits in and the resulting top down perspective is a key part of the problem.

Posted at 8:25am and tagged with: population, politics, disruption,.

smarterplanet:

How to Double Global Food Production by 2050 and Reduce Environmental Damage: Scientific American

Five steps, reflected in the maps below, could be taken to help feed the large population predicted for 2050 as well as reduce the sizeable harm agriculture imposes

CLOSE THE YIELD GAP:

An international research team led by Jon Foley at the University of Minnesota’s Institute on the Environmenthas devised a 5-step plan to double global food production by 2050 as well as reduce the widespread environmental harm posed by contemporary agricultural practices. All maps here were produced by Jamie Gerber at the institute. Step 1 is to raise the crop yield of the world’s most ineffective farms to 95 percent of the best yields attained by farmers in similar climates. Closing this “yield gap” for the top 16 crops worldwide could produce 50 to 60 percent more food.

Credit: Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota

Posted at 3:28am and tagged with: food, agriculture, population,.

smarterplanet:

How to Double Global Food Production by 2050 and Reduce Environmental Damage: Scientific American
Five steps, reflected in the maps below, could be taken to help feed the large population predicted for 2050 as well as reduce the sizeable harm agriculture imposes
CLOSE THE YIELD GAP:
An international research team led by Jon Foley at the University of Minnesota’s Institute on the Environmenthas devised a 5-step plan to double global food production by 2050 as well as reduce the widespread environmental harm posed by contemporary agricultural practices. All maps here were produced by Jamie Gerber at the institute. Step 1 is to raise the crop yield of the world’s most ineffective farms to 95 percent of the best yields attained by farmers in similar climates. Closing this “yield gap” for the top 16 crops worldwide could produce 50 to 60 percent more food.
Credit: Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota

climateadaptation:

Digging these new style of maps.

Population Distribution

(Source: mapsandart)

Posted at 8:25am and tagged with: tech, technology, visualisation, population,.

climateadaptation:

Digging these new style of maps.

Population Distribution

Future Global Energy Prosperity: The Terawatt Challenge

In 2004, the late Nobel laureate, Richard Smalley, one of the pioneers of nanotechnology, shared this incisive report on the future of the world’s energy needs. With world population passing 7 billion, this assessment is even more salient seven years later.

(via smarterplanet)

Posted at 1:40pm and tagged with: Energy, Environment, Population, Future,.

To solve the energy challenge, we will have to find a way to produce, every day, not just what we are producing right now, but at least twice that much. We will need to increase our energy output by a minimum factor of two, the generally agreed upon number, certainly by the middle of the century, but preferably well before that—despite the fact that oil and gas will have long since peaked. Considering that many people on the planet are not using much energy at all and that new energy sources have yet to be developed, billions of people would still be living without modern energy.

To give all 10 billion people on the planet the level of energy prosperity we in the developed world are used to, a couple of kilowatt-hours per person, we would need to generate 60 terawatts around the planet—the equivalent of 900 million barrels of oil per day.